Estimating Future Highway Construction Costs
{" I$ k$ }1 `C. G. Wilmot, M.ASCE,1 and G. Cheng, P.E.2
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Abstract: The objective of this research was to develop a model that estimates future highway construction costs in Louisiana. The model describes overall highway construction cost in terms of a highway construction cost index. The index is a composite measure of the cost of construction labor, materials, and equipment; the characteristics of contracts; and the environment in which contracts are let. Future construction costs are described in terms of predicted index values based on forecasts of the price of construction labor, materials, and equipment and the expected contract characteristics and contract environments. The contract characteristics and contract environments that are under the control of highway agency officials, can be manipulated to reflect future cost-cutting policies. Application of the model in forecasting to highway construction costs in Louisiana shows that the model closely replicates past construction costs for the period 1984–1997. When applied to forecasting future highway construction costs, the model predicts that highway construction costs in Louisiana will double between 1998 and 2015. Applying cost-cutting policies and assuming input costs are 20% less than anticipated, the model estimates highway construction costs will increase by 75% between 1998 and 2015.
" W8 }3 C0 o) Y4 JKey words: Highway construction; Costs; Estimation.% \$ ^1 Q* V7 H% s* d
公路建设造价的未来+ h) e& h f# p& f9 L8 m e
C. G. Wilmot, M.ASCE,1 and G. Cheng, P.E.2
3 D/ p0 F# o0 Z1联合教授，路易斯安娜运输研究中心和国家环境工程局，路易斯安娜国立大学
! v" z6 N) ~2 ?! a& v) F [2注册工程师5 a' a' x$ r' N4 K& w- O4 s! X
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摘要；本文的目标是建立一个用来估算路易斯安娜未来公路建设所需的工程费用的模型。根据公路建设造价索引，该模型介绍了中所有公路建设的工程费用。这索引是一份综合定额，包括建造的人工费，材料费和机械费，项目特征和项目周边的环境情况等等。未来工程的费用是用预计值来进行指定的，预计值是建立在建造人工费，材料费，机械费和预见项目特征和项目环境基础上的预测价格。在公路管理机构控制下的项目特征和项目环境能可根据未来的成本削减政策来操作处理。公路造价预算模型在路易斯安娜的运用表现出这模型几乎是1984—1997年时建设造价模型的重现。未来在运用公路造价预算时，该模型预测路易斯安娜的公路造价将在1998年到2015年间的增加两倍。在应用削减成本政策和假设投入的资金比预算减少20%的情况下，模型预测公路造价将在1998年到2015年间提高75%。
3 p) ^2 E) F; T3 `1 {) N关键词：公路建设，造价，预算
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